The Fort Worth Housing Market Isn't One Thing Right Now — It's Four

One of the most common points of confusion buyers and sellers bring to conversations with real estate agents right now is the assumption that "the market" is doing one thing. In reality, depending on where you fall as a buyer, a seller, or a homeowner considering a move, you're likely operating in a very different environment than the person next to you.

Ryan Serhant, CEO of SERHANT, put it directly: "There is no longer a housing market. There are four Americas."

Here's what those four markets look like, and what each one means for you.

Cash buyers

Roughly one in four home sales nationally involves no mortgage at all. According to the National Association of Realtors, 26 percent of existing home sales this summer were all-cash transactions, largely driven by homeowners who have built significant equity in their current property and are using it to purchase their next home outright.

If you're a cash buyer, your offer carries real advantages: no financing contingency, faster closing timelines, and more room to negotiate on price. If you're a seller evaluating offers, a cash offer reduces the risk of a deal falling through — but that certainty can sometimes come with a lower number attached. It's worth comparing the full picture before treating cash as automatically the strongest option on the table.

Buyers using financing

For buyers taking out a mortgage, the current environment is more challenging. Mortgage rates aren't expected to come down meaningfully anytime soon — data from Fannie Mae shows that nearly half of economic forecasters actually raised their long-term rate projections this year.

There's an offset worth knowing about, though. With more homes on the market and less competition among buyers, sellers are increasingly willing to negotiate. Redfin data shows nearly half of recent sales included a concession — a rate buydown, closing-cost credit, or similar seller contribution. In Fort Worth, where sellers currently outnumber buyers by 87 percent, that dynamic is particularly pronounced. The seller concession is the lever making deals work for financed buyers right now, and it's worth asking for.

Rate-locked homeowners

About two in three current homeowners have a mortgage rate below 5 percent, according to data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency. For many of those owners, trading that rate for a new loan at today's levels simply doesn't pencil out — which is part of why housing inventory remains tighter than it would otherwise be, even in a buyer's market.

Fannie Mae expects this dynamic to persist for another three to five years. For buyers, it means the sellers who do list tend to have real, motivated reasons to move — which often makes them more flexible to work with. For homeowners thinking about selling, running the actual numbers on your equity position may reveal more flexibility than you expect. And if you have an FHA or VA loan, it's worth asking whether it can be made assumable. It's not common, but in this rate environment, it can be a meaningful selling point.

Builders

New construction is worth a closer look for buyers who haven't considered it. Builders currently have more unsold homes than usual — enough to represent nearly 10 months of supply at the current sales pace, well above the normal four-to-six-month range. That's pushing many builders toward price cuts and rate buydown programs to move inventory.

If you're exploring new construction, bring your own agent and evaluate the full incentive package rather than the price tag alone. If you're selling an existing home, lead with what a builder can't offer: an established neighborhood, mature landscaping, and a home that's ready today rather than eight months from now.

Which market are you in?

The right strategy for a cash buyer looks completely different from the right strategy for a rate-locked homeowner thinking about selling. And a financed buyer in Crowley weighing new construction is working through a different set of variables than a cash buyer in Southlake.

Understanding which of these four dynamics applies to your situation is the first step to making a well-informed decision. The team at Mills Real Estate Group can help you work through it. Reach out to start the conversation.